As we head into autumn and the festive season, the market shows a rare moment of stability in UK food inflation — down 0.2% month on month to 4.5%.

While categories like vegetables, dairy and fish are softening, others remain challenging. Beef, poultry and turkey continue to rise with seasonal demand, and poor weather across Europe is now affecting key produce lines.

Seafood shows mixed movement: salmon and whitefish remain volatile, while plaice, sole and tuna offer stable, good-value alternatives. Dairy has steadied, but cream and eggs are expected to climb into the festive months. In dry goods, sugar, chocolate and orange juice continue to drive price pressure, though UK wheat offers some relief.

Overall, the outlook is cautiously positive — stability in inflation, but continued category-by-category volatility.

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