As we move into December and hospitality hits its peak trading period, the market presents a blend of easing inflation and ongoing category-specific pressure. Food inflation continues to soften, thanks to earlier reductions in vegetables, dairy and fish, yet core challenges persist — especially in poultry, whitefish, beef and key commodity inputs.

Poultry and turkey remain the standout pressure points, with avian flu across Europe driving unprecedented volatility and limiting availability. Beef continues to track high, while lamb tightens as the imported season winds down.

Seafood is highly turbulent heading into the festive window. Cod faces major quota-driven shortages, with prices climbing sharply, while haddock demand surges as operators trade away from cod. Shellfish and farmed species such as halibut and trout offer more stability and value.

Produce shows a clear seasonal split: winter roots, brassicas and UK orchard fruits offer excellent value, while imported salads and berries see steep winter inflation. Dairy has largely stabilised, though cream is expected to rise sharply through December, and eggs remain sensitive to avian flu and retail demand.

Overall, the outlook is cautiously steady: softening inflation, but continued volatility depending on category and season.

‍

‍

Read the full report to see where the opportunities lie — and get in touch to explore how our team can help reduce your food costs: hello@procurement-partners.co.uk

‍